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Technical analysis: key levels for gold, silver and crude

Oil prices remain without an upward catalyst to drive them higher, while gold and silver have eased off from yesterday’s highs.

Gold ingots
Source: Bloomberg

$1280 region still supporting Gold 

Once again a spike in gold has been stymied by the $1307 level, although the close above the 20-day moving average does perhaps signal an end to the downtrend from the July highs.

The metal needs to see a break through the $1310 level to be on a real upward move, which would lead us toward the $1322 level.

On the hourly chart, yesterday’s break above the 200-hour moving average has been followed by the 50-hour MA, a bullish signal that has not taken place since 10 July.

As has been the case all week, $1280-$1284 remains a major support zone for gold, with a break through here signaling an attempt to reach $1260.

Silver price still below 200-DMA

Silver’s bounce yesterday has not been sustained today, and the price remains below the 200-DMA, leaving the downtrend from $21.50 still intact.

Only a close above the 200-DMA would signal a turnaround in sentiment, with the most positive sign at present being that the metal has moved back above $20, an area which constituted significant resistance earlier in the year.

For now the hourly chart shows support around $1980, but the steady downtrend is still in place. Moves above the 50-hour MA have been short-lived in recent weeks, and this one may not last long either, even with the intraday relative strength index moving above 50.

Brent's downward trend still present

The $104 level is holding for now, but the declining daily RSI does suggest that more downside is likely here. If $104 is lost then $102.90-$103 is the next region of support to look for, the lows from November 2013.

Any break to the upside will need to clear the $105.50-$105.70 area, which has acted as resistance through this week.

Hourly charts still show a downward trend – with Brent unable to hold on to any move above the 50-hour MA – even if the intraday RSI has begun to rise.

WTI close to six-month lows

This commodity is now trading close to six-month lows, with $96 being potential support if it falls further. The daily RSI shows no sign of rising at present, and has dipped back into oversold territory.

A move higher would need to retake the $98 level, the highs from yesterday, and then $98.50, to be in with a chance of avoiding the fate of previous bounces this week.

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