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Technical analysis: key levels for gold, silver and crude

Gold has stalled again, while crude oil prices are seeing further declines, as Iraq headlines recede.

Gold ingots
Source: Bloomberg

Gold scenario bullish

The breakout for gold from Monday still leaves the scenario more bullish than bearish, but until $1330 is broken then I remain cautious.

Any drops lower will likely be contained around the 200-hour moving average of $1318 and then the $1310 level, but the metal still needs to work off its overbought status on the daily relative strength index before meaningful gains can be made.

With non-farm payrolls looming the market will likely remain quiet, as investors wait out the excitement.

Silver lacking upward momentum

Silver has even less upward momentum than gold, with non-farms being the primary culprit here too.

Although we have broken through $21, until $21.20 is cleared the short-term picture remains uncertain.

Drops lower are likely to be contained by the 200-hour moving average around $20.95 and then the $20.80 level.

Brent crude continues to fall

There is still plenty of downside in Brent crude, as the drop continues even as other risk assets rally.

A steadily declining RSI sends a warning signal that buyers are still absent in this market, and a breach of the May peak just below $110 would leave open the possibility of a drop towards $108.

The 200-day moving average, currently at $108.87, would be one area to look for support, but traders may look to hold off going long until the 20-DMA is breached once again.

US light crude drops through 20-DMA

The latest dip in the NYMEX rally has not yet been bought, and the drop through the 20-DMA is a worrying sign. However, this kind of action is not unusual a day before non-farm payrolls and $104.50 may well act as the support level everyone is looking for.

Any move to the upside would still suggest another attempt to break $107.50, which could then point towards a rally in the direction of the 2013 peak around $110.

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