Silver outperforms while gold retraces off the highs, oil surges on API deficit
11M API deficit sends oil prices higher, while recessionary fears keep gold’s price oscillating at the highs.

GOLD: Oscillating at the highs as safe haven demand fails to subside
The lack of progress in US-China trade talks as the September 1 deadline approaches where both sides will apply fresh tariffs on each other has meant that yields are continuing to drop, and the US yield curve suffering a deepening inversion. That is keeping gold’s price continuing to experience fresh highs, even if its eventually retracing back down as of this morning. It’s a bull trend technical overview backed by significant fundamentals, but stalling in the sense that the moves have been open to eventual retracement, and hence contrarian reversal strategies might be entertained following breakout strategies on limited profit-taking for those not wanting to hold for the mid to long-term. Retail bias is still majority long but has dropped 5% on long profit-taking.

SILVER: Bull trend accelerates as volatility hits the pair hard
Although the pair stalls at times following significant movement, the strategies more in line with its current price movement are that of a bull trend technical overview as its price accelerates to the upside, outperforming gold significantly. All its short and long-term technicals are flashing green, yet the surprise has been its outperformance compared to gold. But traders aren’t complaining, retail bias is still extreme long but down 4% on more profit-taking as shorts get squeezed, and institutional bias only recently upped their bias to a heavy long 66%, also beneficiaries of the recent gains.

OIL – US CRUDE: Massive API deficit takes the energy commodity’s price higher
Although oil’s technical overview is still showing a touch of negative bias with its price below all its main long-term moving averages and its short-term bear trend channel still holding, yesterday’s API deficit of 11M sent the energy commodity’s price back up towards the upper end of its channel. However, any moves on API aren’t usually confirmed until EIA’s more encompassing estimate is released later today, expected to show a more modest 2.8M deficit. That’s the supply side. On the demand side, recessionary fears and no update on the trade war subsiding ahead of fresh tariffs this Sunday may limit gains in this pair’s price, especially if the yield curve inversion worsens. In terms of bias, retail traders were on the right side of this trade and dropped sentiment 13% since yesterday to a more modest majority long 55% on range-trading longs taking profit and shorts anticipating retracement.

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