Oil retail long bias plummets, CoT holds
Gold and oil CoT bias remain in extreme long territory anticipating further gains.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Last week's Weekly 1st Support held three times before finally cracking on Thursday, and also tested buy-on-reversal strategies on the daily late last week even if prices partially recovered by the end of Friday. The technicals while still bullish on both the daily and weekly have been stalling heavily at these levels, with more technical indicators in the short-term switching back to neutral. The US dollar was an underperformer last week amongst the FX majors and equities failed to finish higher, and hence the surprise to the lower finish for gold despite what should have been bullish factors.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
In sentiment, retail long bias has risen to 75% at the start of this week, while institutional bias pushes further into extreme long territory with an increase in longs by 5,119 lots and a reduction in shorts by 8,039 lots taking the bias to a staggeringly high 92%.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Silver prices remained rangebound last week touching the Weekly 1st Support before retracing back up and also testing daily reversal strategies late last week when Thursday's move was finally beyond its key pivot points. Both gold and silver weakened against the US dollar (which in turn underperformed in the FX market), but against each other gold slightly outperformed to take the gold/silver ratio slightly higher.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
Retail bias is still in extreme long territory but has dropped a couple notches to 87%, while the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report shows long bias drop to 70% on a reduction in silver long positions by 1,668 lots and a simultaneous increase in shorts by 1,335 lots.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Oil prices finally managed to enjoy a week with a close that was higher than its open, reaching last week's Weekly (and last Thursday's Daily) 1st Resistance level but offering little beyond it oscillating near the highs. In earnings for the Oil Majors, both Chevron and ExxonMobil on Friday outlined big cuts in the Permian shale basin, and Baker Hughes US active oil rig count showed yet another big drop, this time to 325 from 378 prior.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
In sentiment, retail bias has plummeted as fresh longs have been very quick to close out, but for CoT speculators it has remained in extreme long territory with long positions rising slightly and a small drop in shorts keeping the percentage at 83%.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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