Gold and silver remain range-bound while oil retreats slightly ahead of API
Price movement in line with precious metals’ technical overview but set to get jolted by tomorrow’s FOMC.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
There's little for gold to go on ahead of tomorrow's US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement, as risk-taking in the greenback is usually limiting with the focus more on portfolio readjustments prior. From a technical standpoint, its price is relatively near the lows and below all its main short-term moving averages (as well as most of its long-term moving averages), and a negative DMI (Directional Movement Index) cross has occurred. Its remaining main technical indicators remain neutral however, and with a non-trending ADX (Average Directional Index).
IG client and CoT sentiment for Gold
Retail bias is unchanged since yesterday standing at an extreme long 79%, and should a lack of price movement occur and it may entice trend traders into range trading instead.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Silver has been the precious metal struggling more as of late, even if it managed to only slightly lift itself off the lows yesterday. More negative technical bias is emerging with more of its main technical indicators flashing red. However, with its fate tied to gold (even if the spread between the two can move), the two rarely have diverging technical overviews for long, meaning expecting one to catch up with the other has usually been the likelier scenario.
IG client and CoT sentiment for Silver
Extreme long retail traders holding a 92% bias continue to hold their breath hoping for a move back up, and larger speculative traders (according to the latest Commitment of Traders report) are also holding a heavy long bias at 70%.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Will it or won't it has been the question for oil in terms of breaching the upper end of its daily bull trend channel, and tonight's API (American Petroleum Institute) inventories estimate is the first of the weekly items we'll be getting later today. While the impact is limiting and sometimes off that of Wednesday's EIA estimate, it is still watched by traders wanting a glimpse of what the latter's more encompassing estimate might look like, especially after last week's 4.9M drawdown and followed by a larger than expected output reduction by OPEC+ members last Friday.
IG client and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
The slight retracement back down has enticed fresh shorts into closing out but given the bulk of those shorts have been initiated at lower price levels means the slight move lower has only caused majority short bias to drop by 1% to 60% amongst retail traders.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
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Keep an eye on FOMC opportunity
Find out how FOMC meetings can affect the markets ahead of the next one on 27-28 April 2021.
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- How does the FOMC announcement usually affect the dollar?
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