Crude soars as geopolitical tensions rise, gold and silver finish the week in the red
Energy prices gap higher this morning as energy and safe haven in demand on risk-off and geopolitical play.

GOLD: Weekly bull trend technical overview still intact after three weeks of stalling
Another week, another consecutive decline for gold’s price off the highs, and in the process denting its bull trend technical overview on the weekly and shifting its technical overview on the daily. Retail bias has also been rising as shorts take profit and longs average-in anticipating further gains, and institutional trader bias is still extreme long despite a 31.3K lot reduction in gold long positions. ECB easing on Thursday sent the non-yielding metal surging higher only for those gains to get undone, but its rising geopolitical tensions that is giving the precious metal a leg to stand on as its short-term support level holds. Up next is the Fed, and that’ll certainly keep both aspects of this pair jumpy.

SILVER: Underperforming significantly as volatility spikes
Just as we were starting to get used to silver outperforming against its precious metal cousin, last Friday’s plummet put a final wrench in its daily bull trend outlook that had been stalling heavily at the highs, and on a weekly chart its price is on the verge of breaking its long-term bull trend line. The weekend oil attacks have given safe haven a leg to stand on, and as a result the pair’s price has managed to lift itself off the lows ahead of this Wednesday’s Fed. Retail bias is still at extreme long 84% levels as retail longs hold on anticipating a resumption of its bull trend, while institutional bias is unchanged at a heavy long 71% bias as both long and short silver positionings were reduced, to the tune of 4.6K lots and 2.7K lots respectively.

OIL – US CRUDE: Geopolitical tensions breathe new life into the pair’s price
Leave it to geopolitical tensions to breathe new life into the energy commodity’s price, with news that Saudi output has been cut in half. While that adds to supply side woes following last Friday’s Baker Hughes US oil rig count that showed yet another decline from 738 to 733, this one’s on another level and doesn’t show any signs of subsiding just yet, with any reaction set to provoke further reaction. That should keep its technical overview volatile (to say the least), and add a risk premium in the process, with conformist breakout strategies likely more ideal than contrarian reversal ones, and with fading strategies ignored altogether. The increase in price is expected to throw a lifeline to US shale at a time when bankruptcies have been rising, though whether its short-term or long-term remains yet to be seen.

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