CoT long bias rises in gold, silver, and oil

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Gold weekly technical overview last week was a stalling bull trend, and after the surge in its price that shifted its daily overview to volatile, looking past the bullish moves and the bulk of the gains here week-on-week have been mostly limiting. That’s not to say further price increases aren’t in store for the precious metal, especially if uncertainties continue to rise coupled with any USD weakness the likes of which we saw on Friday.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Gold

In sentiment, retail bias is down compared to the start of last week, but the bias is still majority long and a beneficiary of the recent moves. More so for larger speculative traders according to the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report, with long bias rising a couples notches to an extreme 88% on an increase in long positions by 51,814 lots and a simultaneous reduction in short positions by 3,861 lots.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

After outperforming against gold earlier in the week, the surge later in the week for gold prices meant that the gold/silver ratio finished only slightly lower. As for silver prices alone, the surge blew past last week’s 1^st Resistance level in what was seven consecutive days of gains and shifting its daily technical overview. The weekly overview continues to show positive technical bias combined with a non-trending ADX (Average Directional Index), but that’s not to say contrarian breakout strategies won’t outperform should prices make another move higher.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Silver

Retail sentiment has dropped 5% since the start of last week and remains in extreme long levels, no doubt a beneficiary of the recent moves. On the CoT front, the bias has risen to extreme long levels standing at 78% as an increase in silver long positions by 11,545 lots outdoes a smaller increase in silver shorts by 1,305 lots.

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Last week’s oil price movement breached the Weekly 1^st Resistance level but failed to hold onto those gains with a partial drop back down. The lack of volatility here on a lack of a response from OPEC+ thus far has meant that its technical overview is consolidatory, with contrarian breakout strategies outperforming should anything significant hit the wires, such as the Wall Street Journal’s report last Friday that Saudi Arabia is considering a break in its alliance with Russia. On the rig count front, Baker Hughes showed little change for the US with an increase by only 1 to 679.

Learn more about oil trading.

IG client^* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

Lastly, in sentiment, the price moves back up have aided retail long traders, whose extreme long bias of 82% at the start of last week has now dropped to 78%, matching that of CoT speculative traders who have increased their long bias.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.

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