A red week for gold, silver, and oil as US dollar outperforms
CoT long bias drops in oil and gold, rises in silver.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Gold prices got tested earlier this week, breaching last week's Weekly 1st Resistance level and finishing only slight above it after crashing to $1,550 in a real test of its technical overview in the short-term, but where a brief glimpse at the weekly chart shows thus far its stalling at the highs, with its main technical indicators on the long-term still flashing green. Although equities are outperforming which usually hurts the safe haven precious metal, the plummet in safe haven assets has been relatively contained with bond yields remaining relatively low.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
Retail bias here has risen slightly to a heavy long 70%, while simultaneously the latest figures out of the CoT (Commitment of Traders) report shows extreme long bias dropping 3% on a reduction in gold long positions by 20,492 lots and an increase in gold short positions by 9,794 lots.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Silver prices reached last week’s Weekly 1st Support level of 17.48 before retracing back up but still finishing the week slightly in the red as the US dollar outperformed in the FX market, and risk-related flows were in favor riskier assets though not so much at the expense of safe haven assets. As it stands, the bulk of the precious metal’s main technical indicators remain neutral, but with its price still above all its main long-term moving averages.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
In sentiment, retail bias has risen a notch to an extreme long 92%, and interestingly enough institutional bias has jumped to near extreme long levels rising 6% to 77%. That isn’t due to an increase in silver long positions by larger speculative traders as per the latest CoT report as in fact it dropped by 8,559 lots. Its due to short positions dropping even more, by 12,945 lots.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
A fifth consecutive week in the red for oil prices, this time around awaiting follow through from OPEC+ following its Joint Technical Committee recommending further output cuts. In oil data, Baker Hughes’ US oil rig count rose by one to 676 rigs, though expect that number to get tested should oil prices remain low. Neither pivot point of last week’s Weekly overview was reached, as contrary to expectations of volatility its prices remained oscillating at the lows.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
Retail bias is unchanged at an extreme long 87%, while CoT bias has started to plummet, dropping 8% on the week before’s report due to a reduction in long positions by 11,338 lots and a rise in short positions by 53,050 lots.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
* The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%.
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