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CFDs are complex financial instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFDs are complex financial instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Gold and silver finish higher but oil lags on EIA surplus

US Fed rate cut aids precious metals in finishing higher but larger than expected EIA surplus dents appetite for oil.

FED Source: Bloomberg

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Gold has a tendency to be affected by multiple factors including interest rates on fiat currency and overall risk appetite, for should investors seek higher returns on expectations the economy will improve and they'll dump the non-yielding precious metal for other assets. Should interest rates fall and it'll entice more into holding the safe haven metal as opposed to depreciating fiat currency. So when the US Federal Reserve opted to cut rates by 0.25% yesterday, the result for this pair's price was a rise against a weakened US dollar, and where both retail and institutional traders holding heavy to extreme long bias were in favor of the move, the former reducing their heavy long bias by 2% to 71% on slight long profit-taking.

Current Technical Overview Consolidation
Technical Overview Conformist Strategies Sell 1st Resistance At/Before Price, Buy 1st Support After Reversal
Technical Overview Contrarian Strategies Buy 1st Resistance Upon Breakout From Below, Sell 1st Support Upon Breakout From Above
S/L for 2nd Resistance 1523.7
2nd Resistance 1518.0
S/L for 1st Resistance 1512.3
1st Resistance 1506.7
Relative Starting Point 1495.3
1st Support 1484.0
S/L for 1st Support 1478.3
2nd Support 1472.6
S/L for 2nd Support 1466.9

IG client and CoT sentiment for Gold

Gold sentiment Source: IG charts
Gold sentiment Source: IG charts

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Gold Source: IG charts
Gold Source: IG charts

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

As with gold, the pair's price resulted in a finish higher but in this case only slightly and where the moves have largely been in line with its consolidatory technical overview. And as with gold, given here both retail and institutional traders are holding heavy long bias (and at extreme levels for retail traders), the slight increase in the pair’s price was in the right direction but needing far more given where those longs have been initiated, and hence it’s no surprise retail bias remains unchanged at an extreme long 88% since yesterday morning. As it stands, the technical overview remains consolidatory, but more significant US data awaits today and tomorrow, meaning breakouts can't be ruled out until the dust settles.

Current Technical Overview Consolidation
Technical Overview Conformist Strategies Sell 1st Resistance After Reversal, Buy 1st Support After Reversal
Technical Overview Contrarian Strategies Buy 1st Resistance Upon Breakout From Below, Sell 1st Support Upon Breakout From Above
S/L for 2nd Resistance 18.50
2nd Resistance 18.37
S/L for 1st Resistance 18.24
1st Resistance 18.11
Relative Starting Point 17.85
1st Support 17.59
S/L for 1st Support 17.46
2nd Support 17.33
S/L for 2nd Support 17.20

IG client and CoT sentiment for Silver

Silver sentiment Source: IG charts
Silver sentiment Source: IG charts

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Source: IG charts
Silver Source: IG charts

Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Although initial focus was on US data including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures that were slightly above expectations, it was Energy Information Agency's (EIA) oil inventories estimate that showed a larger 5.7M reading, and as a result oil prices finished in the red for the session. This morning's Chinese manufacturing data showed ongoing contraction, and that's prior to tomorrow's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures from the other manufacturing majors including Institute for Supply Management's reading following surprise contractions over the past two months. The pair’s price is back below its 50-day moving average (and hence below all its main long-term moving averages).

Current Technical Overview Consolidation
Technical Overview Conformist Strategies Sell 1st Resistance After Reversal, Buy 1st Support After Reversal
Technical Overview Contrarian Strategies Buy 1st Resistance Upon Breakout From Below, Sell 1st Support Upon Breakout From Above
S/L for 2nd Resistance 57.47
2nd Resistance 56.98
S/L for 1st Resistance 56.49
1st Resistance 56.00
Relative Starting Point 55.02
1st Support 54.04
S/L for 1st Support 53.55
2nd Support 53.06
S/L for 2nd Support 52.57

IG client and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

In sentiment, short positions have dwindled and longs have initiated, taking majority long bias 7% higher since yesterday morning and into heavy long territory.

Oil sentiment Source: IG charts
Oil sentiment Source: IG charts

Oil chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil Source: IG charts
Oil Source: IG charts
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