Skip to content

We want to clarify that IG International does not have an official Line account at this time. We have not established any official presence on Line messaging platform. Therefore, any accounts claiming to represent IG International on Line are unauthorized and should be considered as fake.
CFDs are complex instruments. 72% of retail client accounts lose money when trading CFDs, with this investment provider. You can lose your money rapidly due to leverage. Please ensure you understand how this product works and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing money.
CFDs are complex instruments. 72% of retail client accounts lose money when trading CFDs, with this investment provider. You can lose your money rapidly due to leverage. Please ensure you understand how this product works and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing money.

The ECB is now likely to cut rates before the Fed

Despite inflation falling in the eurozone, the ECB's main refinancing rate is forecast to remain at 4.5%. The market widely sees an initial rate cut in June.

Video poster image

The Federal Reserve

For months, a June Fed rate cut was traders' favourite bet, but after Wednesday's stronger-than-expected consumer price index (CPI), they don't see any policy easing before the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s mid-September, which would mean that a 75 basis point cut this year is no longer on the cards. The market now sees only two 25-bps cuts this year.

Later on Wednesday, the minutes published last night of the Federal Reserve meeting in March showed Fed members to be concerned that inflation wasn't moving down quickly enough. The one hint at dovishness was that there was the expectation that rates would still come down this year. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members voted to keep language in the post-meeting statement that they wouldn't be cutting rates until they "gained greater confidence" that inflation was on a steady path back to the central bank's 2% annual target.

European Central Bank

Despite inflation falling in the eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB)'s main refinancing rate is forecast to remain at 4.5%. The market widely sees an initial rate cut in June.

China's consumer inflation

China's consumer inflation cooled more than expected in March. Consumer prices rose by a muted 0.1% in March year-on-year (YoY), after a 0.7% rise in February and missing expectations for a 0.4% rise. Factory-gate prices fell 2.8% in March YoY, after a 2.7% slide in February. Producer Price Index (PPI) has now been declining for a year and a half, maintaining pressure on policymakers to launch more stimulus as demand remains weak.

Constellation Brands

Constellation Brands is scheduled to report on Thursday before the market opens. The street sees earnings of $2.11 per share, up 6.6% year-on-year (YoY). Revenue is forecast to increase by 5.5% to $2.1 billion. Demand for the group's popular brands of beer like Corona and Modelo continues to remain strong, but weakness could come from its Wine and Spirits business.

WTI and Brent

On the commodity front, WTI and Brent rose on Wednesday after an escalation in Middle East tensions. In the US, low crude exports last week led to an increase in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, according to the Environmental Impact assessment (EIA).


This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Start trading forex today

Trade the largest and most volatile financial market in the world.

  • Spreads start at just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
  • Analyse market movements with our essential selection of charts
  • Speculate from a range of platforms, including on mobile

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.